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Post by jamiafqc on Wed Aug 01, 2012 2:09 am

We are projecting Houston with 8.8 wins, !!! Blocked DIRECT EXTERNAL URL Link => Edit & leave it without URL tags OR put it into CODE tags !!! Tennessee with 7.5, and the other two teams under seven.” nike nfl jerseys Last year was a particularly odd way for the Texans to finally get their playoff year with injuries to key players, finally getting an experienced defensive coordinator, the weird lockout out-season. Does that complicate projections at all?“Not really. The injuries were a big deal, of course, but the Texans were not inordinately lucky or unlucky at any one position outside of losing Matt Schaub for the season (and the relative rarity of that) and the good overall health of their defensive backs. Normally when we change a projection due to injuries, it’ll be because a team falls on one side or the other of the Adjusted Games Lost spectrum. The Texans finished as the 11th healthiest team despite the misfortune that befell Schaub, !!! Blocked DIRECT EXTERNAL URL Link => Edit & leave it without URL tags OR put it into CODE tags !!! Mario Williams, and Andre Johnson. Of course, you could argue that those specific injuries were more devastating than normal ones — and I wouldn’t disagree with that. ZRNSHD0801

It’s just not something that a statistical model is built to pick up on.Phillips complicates projections in so much as the massive defensive improvement makes the system think Houston will regress, but there isn’t anything specific to him that the system dislikes. And every team had to deal with the lockout chaff, so there were no real adjustments in the projections because of that.” Last year the defensive question was whether Mario Williams could transition to the 3-4. !!! Blocked DIRECT EXTERNAL URL Link => Edit & leave it without URL tags OR put it into CODE tags !!! This year the story of the defense is how do the Texans deal with the exit of Mario and DeMeco Ryans? Thoughts?“I think Houston is in excellent shape to absorb the losses. Between Whitney Mercilus, Brooks Reed, and Connor Barwin, the Texans have plenty of options to man the “endbacker” position. Mario Williams is invariably more talented than any of those options, but it’s not like the Texans had a lot of production from him last year to replace: just five sacks in five games.

As for Ryans, I believe this is a situation where the Texans thought it smart to give up on a player a year too soon rather than a year too late. I wouldn’t be completely surprised if Ryans has a bounceback season in Philadelphia just because I know the kind of worker he is, but replacing his production last year, where he was little more than a two-down linebacker that had lost a step? I don’t think Houston has too much to be concerned about here. These are big names, !!! Blocked DIRECT EXTERNAL URL Link => Edit & leave it without URL tags OR put it into CODE tags !!! and it hurts when big names move on because they have invariably produced well historically, but there wasn’t much irreplaceable production from those two last season.”Some suggest that the second year of Wade Phillips means the Texans defense in his year 2 will collapse. What does your Football Outsiders data suggest if anything?
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